Republicans insist Michigan is in play, but their TV ad buys tell a different story

Not playing in Michigan or Pennsylvania. The trees are apparently not the right height in Michigan, after all. Republican groups like the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity and Karl Rove's American Crossroads have stopped advertising there, as well as in Pennsylvania. Earlier in the year, Republicans insisted that Michigan, one of Mitt Romney's home states, was within reach. But now, as polls show President Barack Obama with solid leads in those states, it's a different story. Though outside groups have spent $10.9 million on anti-Obama or pro-Romney ads:

The last pro-Romney TV ad in Michigan was a $528,000 spot Restore Our Future political action committee bought last month during the Olympics touting the former Massachusetts governor's efforts to revive the fledgling 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Robinson said.

Various Republicans are insisting Michigan is still in play and that they'll be mounting a campaign there:

"Michigan is in play and we're going to continue to work hard here. It's a state that will get attention," Republican National Committee finance chairman Ron Weiser told The Detroit News. [...]

The Republicans met last week in Tampa, Fla., where deputy campaign director Katie Packer Gage told the Michigan delegation that Romney "will never pull out of Michigan."

Michigan will get attention'just not in the form of TV ad buys. Romney will never pull out of Michigan'but he won't actually put much in, either. Sure, if the polls suddenly swing toward Romney, Republican billionaires and their Super PACs could dive back in with big TV ad buys. But given that nasty ads are the Republican tactic for winning, their absence these days in Michigan and Pennsylvania says a lot about what Republican strategists see happening in those supposed swing states.