Saturday, September 22, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Wildly diverging national polls still net positive for Obama

Friday is ordinarily a very slow polling day, a day normally suited for ill-timed news dumps (and, boy oh boy, did that happen today). But, courtesy of what appears to be the start of a regular set of data courtesy of the online polling unit known as YouGov, we have another day with a ton of data. Thanks primarily to the deluge of data from the YouGov team, we have our third consecutive day of record-setting Wrap girth. Today, we see 60 unique polls, including no less than four states or races that had not yet been polled in this cycle.

Looking at the numbers, as has been the case for most of the week, you'd probably rather be the Democrats than the GOP. The lone exception might be in the House, where today's six-pack of polls are a pretty unrelenting bummer for the blue team. Aside from that, there is quite a bit to be pleased about.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Angus Reid): Obama 48, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 42

NATIONAL (National Journal): Obama 50, Romney 43

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Reason/Rupe): Obama 52, Romney 45; Obama 49, Romney 42, Johnson 6


ARIZONA (Purple Strategies): Romney 48, Obama 45

ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 51, Obama 41

CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 36

COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama 48, Romney 45

CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 39

FLORIDA (Purple Strategies): Romney 48, Obama 47

GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 50, Obama 44

ILLINOIS (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 35

INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 50, Obama 44

MARYLAND (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 36

MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Obama 56, Romney 37

MICHIGAN (Michigan State University): Obama 39, Romney 30

MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 41

MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 43

NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 39

NEW MEXICO (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 41

NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 34

NORTH CAROLINA (Purple Strategies): Obama 48, Romney 46

OHIO (Purple Strategies): Obama 48, Romney 44

PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 39

SOUTH DAKOTA (Nielson Brothers): Romney 54, Obama 39

TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 42

TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 41

VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama 46, Romney 43

WASHINGTON (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 39

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 37

CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 52, Elizabeth Emken (R) 34

CT-SEN (YouGov): Linda McMahon (R) 45, Chris Murphy (D) 40

FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 48, Connie Mack IV (R) 40

IN-SEN (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 41, Joe Donnelly (D) 38

MD-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 50, Dan Bongino (R) 30

MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting--R): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 48, Elizabeth Warren (D) 47

MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 44, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 43

MN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 49, Kurt Bills (R) 34

MO-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Todd Akin (R) 38

NJ-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 43, Joe Kyrillos (R) 29

NM-SEN (YouGov): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 35

NY-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 52, Wendy Long (R) 25

TN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 49, Mark Clayton (D) 25

TX-SEN (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 31

WA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 37

WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46


IN-GOV (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 48, John Gregg (D) 33

MO-GOV (YouGov): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 51, Dave Spence (R) 33

MT-GOV (Mason Dixon): Steve Bullock (D) 44, Rick Hill (R) 43

WA-GOV (YouGov): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 43

WI-SEN (PPP): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 45


CA-30 (SurveyUSA): Brad Sherman (D) 45, Howard Berman (D) 32

FL-26 (Dario Moreno for the Rivera campaign): Rep. David Rivera (R) 44, Joe Garcia (D) 38

NV-04 (SurveyUSA): Danny Tarkanian (R) 45, Steven Horsford (D) 42

NY-18 (PPP for the AFL-CIO): Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) 43, Sean Patrick Mahoney (D) 43

NY-19 (Siena College): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) 52, Julian Schreibman (D) 36

SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Rep. Kristi Noem (R) 51, Matt Varilek (D) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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