Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Did Mitt Romney really fumble away the election yesterday?

So, anyone tuned into the political world in the last 24-36 hours is already well aware that Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney managed to get caught gloriously crapping the bed in a leaked video from a GOP fundraiser earlier in the year.

Within minutes of the first incriminating words being leaked onto the internets, a number of voices of the left, right, and center began declaring that this was a pivot point in the election, with some calling it Romney's "Macaca moment", and others comparing it to a more apt analogy: "the fundamentals of our economy" comment from John McCain in 2008. Bloomberg's Josh Barro may have stated it the most bluntly:

You can mark my prediction now: A secret recording from a closed-door Mitt Romney fundraiser, released today by David Corn at Mother Jones, has killed Mitt Romney's campaign for president.

Is it too early to declare the Romney presidential campaign deceased? It may well be. One study shows that "game changing" gaffes, as it happens, are almost never game changers. There are exceptions, however, and this might be one of them.

First, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-43 LV; 48-40 RV)

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (50-45 LV; 50-44 RV)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (50-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking--with leaners): Obama tied with Romney (48-48)

COLORADO (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

FLORIDA (Gravis Marketing--R): Romney d. Obama (48-47)

MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama d. Romney (57-39)

MASSACHUSETTS (Suffolk University): Obama d. Romney (64-31)

MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England College): Obama d. Romney (60-38 LV; 64-32 RV)

MICHIGAN (Marketing Resource Group--R): Obama d. Romney (48-42)

NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Obama d. Romney (48-46)

OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (50-41)

PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College/Morning Call): Obama d. Romney (50-41)

VIRGINIA (Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (52-44 LV; 50-43 RV)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

CA-36 (PPP for D.F.A.): Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 47, Raul Ruiz (D) 44

CO-06 (DCCC IVR Polling): Rep. Mike Coffman (R) 42, Joe Miklosi (D) 39

FL-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Connie Mack IV (R) 43, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 42

FL-26 (PPP for D.F.A.): Joe Garcia (D) 46, Rep. David Rivera (R) 39

MA-SEN (Suffolk University): Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44

MI-SEN (Marketing Resource Group--R): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 46, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40

NH-GOV (American Research Group): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 47, Maggie Hassan (D) 46, John Babiarz (L) 2

NJ-SEN (Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 43, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32

NY-18 (Siena College): Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) 46, Sean Maloney (D) 33, Larry Weissman (WFP) 10

OH-06 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Wilson campaign): Rep. Bill Johnson (R) 46, Charlie Wilson (D) 46

PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College/Morning Call): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 45, Tom Smith (R) 33

WA-01 (SurveyUSA): John Koster (R) 46, Suzan DelBene (D) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...