Tuesday, January 29, 2013

A way to immigration reform

(L-R) U.S. Senators John McCain (R-AZ), Charles Schumer (D-NY), and Marco Rubio (R-FL) attend a news conference on comprehensive immigration reform at the U.S. Capitol in Washington January 28, 2013.   REUTERS/Gary Cameron Sens. John McCain, Chuck Schumer, and Marco Rubio discuss their vague-ish "framework" for immigration reform. Republicans can't win a national election given their demographic problems. Per 2012 exit polling, whites made up 72 percent of voters and Mitt Romney won them by a dominant 59-39. Yet President Barack Obama won reelection by an easy four points.

So Republicans don't need to win the Latino vote, they just need to dig into that massive 44-point Democratic advantage. But as I've noted before, it's hard to play nice with Latinos when signing on to comprehensive immigration reform would mean 13 million new Latino voters, or a net eight million new Democratic voters. Remember, Obama won the 2012 elections by five million.

So there is little incentive for the GOP at large to indulge in any reform effort. While standing in the way of reform would cost Republicans more of what little Latino support they retain, the alternative isn't that much more palatable.

But while the party at large isn't much interested in reform, there are individual Republicans who won't survive future elections without winning a greater share of the Latino vote. Let's go below the fold to see who these potential targets might be.

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