GOP splits even as illegal immigration plummets

After its shellacking in November, the Republican Party is now splitting in two over the issue of immigration reform. On one side are the cynical, convinced the GOP must change its stand not out of principle or basic humanity but simply because of, as John McCain put it, "elections, elections." But on the other side are the even more cynical, reform opponents like Ann Coulter, David Vitter and the National Review who warn a path to citizenship is the surest route to millions of new Democratic voters.

But leaving aside for the moment the arguments as to why comprehensive immigration reform is the right thing to do, there can be little doubt that this is the right time to do it. After all, over just the past few years the population of undocumented immigrants has dropped from 12 to 11 million. By last year, the U.S. recession, stepped up border security, the growing Mexican economy and aging Mexican population combined may have produced a net outflow of undocumented workers. The result, contrary to conservative mythmaking, is an undocumented population over 60 percent of which has now been in the United States for over a decade.

That illegal immigration into the U.S. has plummeted is indisputable. As the Washington Post reported in December 2011, "The Border Patrol apprehended 327,577 illegal crossers along the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2011, which ended Sept. 30, numbers not seen since Richard Nixon was president, and a precipitous drop from the peak in 2000, when 1.6 million unauthorized migrants were caught." But as the New York Times explained this week, that shift may continue even after the U.S. economy fully recovers:

By some key measures, the problems underlying illegal immigration --the economic and demographic pressures that have drawn Mexicans north for decades in search of jobs and a better life, and the challenges for the United States of securing its borders -- have diminished over the past six years.

The Mexican economy, while still riddled with inefficiency and inequality, is nonetheless humming along, providing many more job opportunities for Mexican workers. And in Mexico, the source of about 6 in 10 illegal immigrants in the United States, the birthrate has plummeted over the last few decades, shrinking the pool of potential emigrants.

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