' WV-Sen: In an unsurprising move, Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller declared on Friday that will not seek re-election in 2014, though he does intend to finish out his term. Rockefeller is 75 and would have been seeking his sixth term, in a state that's grown increasingly hostile to Democrats; West Virginia went for Mitt Romney 62-36 in the most recent election (making it Obama's fifth-worst state), and the president lost every single county.
But Rockefeller, too, had seemingly moved away from the political mainstream in his home state. Back in June, we took note of some extremely unusual remarks Rockefeller made on the Senate floor, castigating the coal industry for engaging in scare tactics over any attempts to regulate it. At the time, it seemed like a potential signal that Rocky was eyeing the exits'after all, you don't go after Big Coal when you're up against a very competitive race in a state where the demographics are racing away from you.
Whether that speech was a tell or not, GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's early entry into the contest back in November certainly raised the stakes for Rockefeller, given that she's unquestionably the strongest Republican candidate in the state. In response to Capito's move, Rockefeller sounded pretty unenthusiastic about saddling up for still one more race, so Friday's development was not unexpected.
The real question, of course, is what Democrats do next. Despite West Virginia's move to the right, there's still a strong Democratic bench. What's more, given Rockefeller's attacks on coal (as well as his lack of fire in the belly), this could be a rare situation where Dems might be better off with a replacement instead of the incumbent. No matter what, though, you can bet that DSCC chair Michael Bennet has been on the horn with potential recruits all weekend. Here's what some possible names are already saying in response to the news:
' Ex-Sen. Carte Goodwin, who, as an appointee, briefly served out the final months of the late Robert Byrd's term in 2010: Says he "was flattered to be listed."' Rep. Nick Rahall, who only won re-election in WV-03 last year with 54 percent of the vote: Says the decision "has made it incumbent upon me to recalibrate all my decisions."
' Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis: Says she "will think this through very thoroughly."
' Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2011: Says she hasn't "ruled anything out."
' Ex-state party chair Mike Callaghan, who unsuccessfully ran against Capito in 2006: had said in November "I have an interest in running" should Rockefeller retire.
' State House Speaker Rick Thompson, who also unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2011: Says (via a campaign consultant) that "he's not interested in running."
' Ex-Gov. Bob Wise: Says he "appreciate[s] even being mentioned" but "want[s] to stay involved" with his non-profit efforts on education.
A few other names percolating include ex-Gov. Gaston Caperton, state Sen. Jeff Kessler, and state Treasurer John Perdue, the latter two of whom were both 2011 gubernatorial candidates. A longshot would be current Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, though thanks to a special election, he had to run back-to-back races in 2011 and 2012 and may be ready for a breather.
Meanwhile, GOP Rep. David McKinley, who had previously held the door open to a possible run despite Capito's entrance, says he's still not ruling anything out, while the Senate Conservatives Fund insists that they're "not going to stop looking for a conservative challenger in this race until the primary is over." Er, fellas, it's okay if you quit your scavenger hunt at the filing deadline. Oh, no, wait: write-in!
Undoubtedly we'll hear a lot more on this front in the coming weeks. And note that if Rahall were to jump in, that would create an open seat in his 3rd Congressional District, which would be an extremely tough hold for Democrats given how red it is (it went for Romney 65-33). Capito's House seat is, of course, also open, meaning we could see a lot of action in West Virginia this cycle'and we'll be there to cover it all.
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