Friday, February 8, 2013

Open thread for night owls: It's the trade deficit, stupid! (And currency manipulation)

Night Owls At the Economic Populist, Robert Oak writes It's the Trade Deficit, Stupid! An excerpt:

Congress is focused on all the wrong things to get people back to work. We hear day after day the drone of budget deficits, yet not a word is mentioned on the trade deficit. This is the problem Congress should be obsessed with.   Our massive trade deficit is stunting economic growth and costing America millions of jobs.

EPI has a new study which shows once again, reducing the trade deficit will create American jobs. The number one cause of our massive trade deficit is currency manipulation. The figures are astounding. EPI estimates 20 countries, developed and underdeveloped, made off with $700 billion more in trade by manipulating their currency in 2011. This cost the United States $400 billion in additional trade deficit for the same year. That's a hefty amount of cash.

The U.S. could stop currency manipulation with a just say no program and this doesn't even require Congress. An executive order could declare currency manipulators can not buy U.S. assets, period. This would stop currency manipulation in it's tracks. Manipulators need to buy U.S. assets, in particular U.S. Treasury bonds, to keep their currencies undervalued. [...]

The statistics are bleak. Manufacturing has lost almost a third of her jobs since 1998.  From the same time period, the United States has lost one third of her global export market share. Germany has higher wages for workers than the United States, yet has maintained their global market export share and this is all due to their own domestic policies. China's global export market share has tripled, much of it on the back of the United States workers. Below is a graph of manufacturing employees in the United States since 1998. We might call it the great American job slide where manufacturing is relocated abroad.

According to EPI, if the U.S. stopped currency manipulation in 2011, nominal GDP would have increased whopping 1.4% to 3.1% in 2014. That's huge! Even better, America would have created between 2.2 million to 4.7 million new jobs by 2014. EPI estimates stopping currency manipulation in 2011 would have reduced the unemployment rate by 1.0% to 2.1%  and created between 620,000 to 1.3 million new manufacturing jobs in just three years. That is just stopping currency manipulation, all other policies remain the same. [...]

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