Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here. Leading Off: ' MT-Sen: PPP's new Montana poll may actually offer the worst picture so far for any Democratic incumbent the firm has tested this cycle. What makes this so notable is that I wouldn't really have expected Max Baucus to be faring worse than Mary Landrieu, Mark Begich, and Kay Hagan, three other vulnerable Dem senators PPP has found in reasonably hale shape. But Baucus's numbers against a variety of potential opponents don't look particularly awesome:
' 47-37 vs. state Rep. Champ Edmunds' 45-38 vs. ex-state Sen. Corey Stapleton
' 46-43 vs. state AG Tim Fox
' 44-49 vs. Rep. Steve Daines
' 42-47 vs. ex-Gov. Marc Racicot
The good news for Baucus is that Stapleton, who finished second in last year's gubernatorial primary with just 18 percent, is the only declared candidate, and Edmunds is the only other person who has even expressed interest. But don't get too excited: Both are unknown to voters (Edmunds has just a 4 percent favorability rating!). If a higher-profile opponent were to get in the race, Baucus could really be in trouble. Even brand-new freshman Rep. Steve Daines has just a 35-31 job approval score yet leads by 5, showing just how partisanized elections have become'whether you have a (D) or an (R) after your name is by far your most important characteristic.
As they've often done, PPP also decided to see how ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer would fare, both against Baucus in a primary and in his stead in a general. I've sort of wondered why Tom Jensen keeps bothering, seeing as Schweitzer has made it extremely clear how much he despises the idea of going to Washington, but here's a new wrinkle: After this poll came out, Schweitzer linked to it to his Facebook page without comment. Could he be interested? Well, the numbers definitely look better for him, especially since he leads Baucus 54-35 in a hypothetical nomination fight, similar to what PPP's found in the past. Here's how he fares against Republicans:
' 52-37 vs. Edmunds' 49-39 vs. Stapleton
' 49-43 vs. Fox
' 48-45 vs. Daines
' 45-46 vs. Racicot
That's certainly an improvement over Baucus's scores, which is not too surprising seeing as Schweitzer has a 56-37 favorability rating versus 45-48 job approvals for Baucus. Still, I think Schweitzer would still face a serious dogfight, and aside from that lone Facebook post, there's no real suggestion he might run. (Hell, he probably linked to PPP knowing that it would just stir shit up, because no one except Schweitzer himself has any idea what's in the guy's mind.)
Assuming we're stuck with Baucus, he has to seriously pray that no top-shelf candidates decide to jump in, though numbers like these have to make the race more tempting for Republicans. But maybe Daines isn't eager for a promotion and prefers being in the majority; hopefully Racicot is still enjoying the private sector at age 64; and with any luck, Fox's corporate overlords who installed him last year at great expense will demand he remain in his current position to carry out their dark commands. Still, hope is not a plan, and neither is prayer. If Baucus is to have a chance, it'll be because this race gets extremely ugly, and because he makes it ugly first. Hey, it's politics.
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