Robin Kelly surges to lead in IL-02 special election

Gerstein, Bocian and Agne Strategies for Robin Kelly campaign. 2/4-5. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (1/3-6 results)

Robin Kelly 26 (15)
Debbie Halvorson 22 (25)
Toi Hutchison 20 (16)
Anthony Beale 10 (10)
Mel Reynolds 5 (8)
Other/undecided 15 (26)

The good news is that Orange to Blue candidate Robin Kelly is in the lead, though that 6-point spread between first and third is tight enough to make it a crap shoot. More interesting (and encouraging) are the trends. This poll was taken after Bloomberg's anti-gun Super PAC started pounding on Halvorson. Whether it is the ads themselves, or whether it's the renewed media focus on guns in this race, fact is that Kelly is benefiting most (as she should).

Furthermore, this is not a district that wants anything to do with the NRA, with just 16 percent of likely voters seeing the organization favorably, compared to 60 percent who don't. And it gets worse for Hutchison and Halvorson:

More troubling for Hutchinson and Halvorson is that a solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they would be "not at all likely" to support a candidate who they agreed with on a majority of issues, but who earned an A from the NRA. Another 15 percent said they would only be 'a little likely' to support such a candidate.

Among those who know that Kelly has that "F" from the NRA, she has 65 percent of the vote. One in five of Halvorson's supporters say they wouldn't support a candidate with an "A" rating from the NRA. You better believe this will be a one-note campaign through the end of the month.

And there's no good news for Hutchison in this poll, either: She went from a 34-18 approval rating to 29-37. Why? Guns. And with Bloomberg's outfit doubling down on its attacks on Halvorson with another $382K buy today, the issue isn't going away.

Kelly may be leading in this poll, but she hasn't won. Give $3 to help her finish strong. Over 2,500 of you already have. Don't be shy!