Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Is all the talk of a popular vote/electoral vote split legitimate?

On a very light polling day (as we slid past below 50 polls on the day), and a day when a raft of GOP-inspired polling served to muddle the message a bit, we turn our attention to an oft-debated topic in the past several days. Is a 2000 redux, with one candidate being declared the winner in the electoral college, and the other winning the national popular vote, really as plausible as a number of pundits now insist?

For sure, there may be no more persistent recurring theme in the presidential election of 2012 than the ceaseless (and often perplexing) divergence between national polls that have shown a genuine coin flip between the two presidential candidates, and state polls that have shown the president in a rather modest but consistent advantage, portending an electoral college majority than has almost always wavered between around 280-330 electoral votes.

This has led election observers and analysts to spend most of the latter half of October in endless speculation about the prospect of a virtual "split decision" next week. For the first time in a dozen years, the pundit class was forecasting a very real prospect of a Romney victory in the national popular vote, but an Obama win in the electoral college.

Is this even remotely possible? There is a mathematical chance of it, of course. But there is a more-than-respectable case to be made that, if the state polls are indeed correct, there is virtually no way that Mitt Romney can cobble together a plurality of the popular vote.

More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48

NATIONAL (High Point University): Obama 46, Romney 43

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48

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COLORADO (CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 49, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 48 (RV)

COLORADO (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 44 (RV)

COLORADO (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 47

IOWA (CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 50, Romney 47

IOWA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 43 (RV)

IOWA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 48

MICHIGAN (PPP for HCAN): Obama 53, Romney 45

MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 43

NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 46

NEW HAMPSHIRE (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 46 (RV)

NORTH CAROLINA (High Point University): Romney 46, Obama 45

OHIO (Wenzel Strategies--R): Romney 49, Obama 46

RHODE ISLAND (Fleming and Associates): Obama 54, Romney 33

VIRGINIA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 49, Romney 46

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40

WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Obama 57, Romney 36

WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 45 (RV)

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 49

WISCONSIN (St. Norbert College): Obama 51, Romney 42

WISCONSIN (Wenzel Strategies--R): Obama 49, Romney 47

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

HI-SEN (Merriman River Group): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 40

MN-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 60, Kurt Bills (R) 29

OH-SEN (Wenzel Strategies--R): Josh Mandel (R) 50, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 45

WA-SEN (Univ. of Washington): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 61, Michael Baumgartner (R) 33

WI-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 47 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46

WI-SEN (St. Norbert College): Tommy Thompson (R) 46, Tammy Baldwin (D) 43

WI-SEN (Wenzel Strategies--R): Tommy Thompson (R) 47, Tammy Baldwin (D) 45

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NH-GOV (NBC News/Marist): Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 44 (LV); Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43 (RV)

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 46

WA-GOV (Univ. of Washington): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 46

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CA-52 (SurveyUSA): Scott Peters (D) 46, Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) 46

NY-11 (Siena): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) 52, Mark Murphy (D) 34

NY-21 (Global Strategy Group for the Owens campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 47, Matt Doheny (R) 40

NY-21 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Doheny campaign): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 42, Matt Doheny (R) 40

NY-21 (Siena): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 44, Matt Doheny (R) 43

NY-25 (Siena): Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 52, Maggie Brooks (R) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...