Obama still winning where it matters

Still winning. Obviously, Steve Singiser will have his crazy comprehensive polling roundup later tonight, but I wanted a quick update of the key numbers today. Any dates before 10/17 were pre-second presidential debate.

Colorado (PPP, 10/16-18): Obama 50, Romney 47
Florida (Newsmax/Zogby, 10/14-16): Obama 47, Romney 44
Iowa (Marist/NBC, 10/15-17): Obama 51, Romney 43
Michigan (EPIC-MRA, 10/17): Obama 52, Romney 46
North Carolina (Rasmussen, 10/17): Obama 46, Romney 52
Ohio (Rasmussen, 10/17): Obama 49, Romney 48
Ohio (SurveyUSA, 10/12-15): Obama 45, Romney 42
Virginia (PPP, 10/15-16): Obama 49, Romney 48
Wisconsin (Marist/NBC, 10/15-17): Obama 48 51, Romney 47 45

Those Marist/NBC polls are a dagger in the heart of GOP hopes. Despite running stronger in North Carolina and Florida (Zogby notwithstanding, because I don't trust any of his results, no matter how much I like them), Mitt Romney hasn't been able to make serious inroads in the Midwest.

Marist's Lee Miringoff on stability of Obama's IA/WI lead: "There were two debates, but you can't tell it from the numbers."
' @JohnJHarwood via Twitter for BlackBerry

Florida and North Carolina gets Romney to 235 Electoral Votes. Virginia would get him to 248. And none of those states (no matter what you might read some places) have been conceded.

Note that a big chunk of this data is also pre-debate, and remember that it took about a week before the first debate was fully reflected in the polling. So if there's a post-debate effect, it's too early to see it. These numbers reflect a fading Romney bounce, but say nothing about any potential Obama bounce. And still, we lead where we need to lead.

One more point, we're leading big with confirmed voters, not "likely" ones:

In IA, 34% told us they already voted, Obama leads among them 67-32. 46% told us they'll vote on Election Day, Romney leads them 54-39
' @chucktodd via TweetDeck