Friday, October 19, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The waiting game begins as Democrats hope for post-debate mojo

For those who live and die by the polls at the tail end of the election cycle, the past 24 hours, and the next 24 hours, are going to be nothing short of excruciating.

That is because, for all practical matters, it will be at least that long until we get any hint as to whether or not President Obama's well-received second debate performance has managed to alter the trajectory of the presidential election. Despite the fact that we are greeted with 35 new bits of data today, all of them (except for the House of Ras, of course) are samples that were either partly or wholly conducted prior to the showdown on Tuesday.

Therefore, all we have now is far too much reading into single-day samples in tracking polls, and hints dropped in tweets like this rather pessimistic one from PPP. Of course, the margin of error normally inherent in single-day samples makes overanalysis of them very, very dangerous.

More on that in a little bit. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 52, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 39 (RV)

NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47


COLORADO (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47

CONNECTICUT (PPP for League of Conservation Voters): Obama 53, Romney 44

CONNECTICUT (Univ. of Connecticut): Obama 51, Romney 37

IOWA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 43 (RV)

MICHIGAN (Denno Research): Obama 44, Romney 41

MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama 52, Romney 46

MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 40

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 52, Obama 46

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 48

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research for the PA Republican Party): Romney 49, Obama 45

VIRGINIA (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Obama 49, Romney 48

WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Obama 52, Romney 41

WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CT-SEN (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Chris Murphy (D) 48, Linda McMahon (R) 44

CT-SEN (Univ. of Connecticut): Chris Murphy (D) 44, Linda McMahon (R) 38

NE-SEN (Hickman Analytics for the Kerrey campaign): Deb Fischer (R) 50, Bob Kerrey (D) 45

NV-SEN (Mellman Group for the Berkley campaign): Shelley Berkley (D) 41, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 38, Others 5

NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Heller 50, Berkley 43, Others 4

NV-SEN (SurveyUSA): Heller 46, Berkley 40, Others 8

VA-SEN (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R) 45

WA-SEN (Univ. of Washington): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 58, Michael Baumgartner (R) 35

WI-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 45


NH-GOV (Rasmussen): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 48, Maggie Hassan (D) 46

WA-GOV (Univ. of Washington): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 45


CA-44 (FM3 for the Hahn campaign): Rep. Janice Hahn (D) 43, Rep. Laura Richardson (D) 27

FL-09 (Gravis Marketing for the Grayson campaign): Alan Grayson (D) 56, Todd Long (R) 41

FL-18 (PPP for local media): Rep. Allen West (R) 51, Patrick Murphy (D) 42

FL-22 (Voter Survey Services--R): Lois Frankel (D) 47, Adam Hasner (R) 47

NY-01 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Altschuler campaign): Randy Altschuler (R) 48, Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 43

PA-04 (York College): Scott Perry (R) 39, Harry Perkinson (D) 22, Others 8

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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