Thursday, October 18, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Democrats point to Rasmussen, plus gauging impact of second debate

After today's polling downpour, today amounted to a steady shower, with 39 polls getting added to the mix today. And, taken as a whole, the best way to define today's polls (besides, in many cases, "underwhelming") would be: strange.

After all, you know we have entered into a parallel polling universe when, on a pretty lousy polling day, Democrats are left scrambling into the arms of Scott Rasmussen for comfort.

As Gallup goes way off the radar (or, at least, so it seems), and the respected Marquette Law poll cracks the president hard in the kneecaps, leave it to the House of Ras to give the president his best numbers of the day.

The question now, of course, is whether those numbers are going to improve for the president in the immediate wake of the second presidential debate.

More on that when we scale the wall known as "the jump." For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 51, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 46 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 40 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 43 (RV)


COLORADO (Grove Insight for Project New America--D): Obama 47, Romney 44

CONNECTICUT (Siena): Obama 53, Romney 38

MASSACHUSETTS (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Obama 57, Romney 39

MONTANA (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 43

MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney 53, Obama 45

NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 47

NEVADA (Grove Insight for Project New America): Obama 50, Romney 43

NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 48, Romney 45

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 49

NEW JERSEY (National Research for AFP--R): Obama 48, Romney 41

OHIO (SurveyUSA): Obama 45, Romney 42

WASHINGTON (PPP for Washington Conservation Voters--D): Obama 50, Romney 45

WASHINGTON (Rasmussen): Obama 55, Romney 42

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama 49, Romney 48

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CT-SEN (Siena): Chris Murphy (D) 46, Linda McMahon (R) 44

HI-SEN (Voter/Consumer Research for the Lingle campaign): Mazie Hirono (D) 47, Linda Lingle (R) 43

MA-SEN (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Elizabeth Warren (D) 53, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44

MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 46, Denny Rehberg (R) 44, Dan Cox (L) 7

OH-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 43, Josh Mandel (R) 38, Scott Rupert (I) 4

WI-SEN (The Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 44

WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson (R) 46, Tammy Baldwin (D) 45


WA-GOV (PPP for Washington Conservation Voters--D): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42


AZ-09 (Summit Research for the Parker campaign): Vernon Parker (R) 44, Kyrsten Sinema (D) 42

FL-22 (DCCC IVR Polling--D): Lois Frankel (D) 49, Adam Hasner (R) 39

FL-22 (PPP): Lois Frankel (D) 47, Adam Hasner (R) 44

IL-10 (Internal poll for the Dold campaign): Rep. Bob Dold (R) 46, Brad Schneider (D) 36

MI-06 (Hill Research Consultants of the Upton campaign): Rep. Fred Upton (R) 58, Mike O'Brien (D) 27

NE-02 (DCCC IVR--D): Rep. Lee Terry (R) 48, John Ewing (D) 44

NV-04 (Tarrance Group for the Tarkanian campaign): Danny Tarkanian (R) 50, Steven Horsford (D) 40

NM-01 (Albuquerque Journal): Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D) 51, Janice Arnold-Jones (R) 37

NM-02 (Albuquerque Journal): Rep. Steven Pearce (R) 55, Evelyn Madrid Ehrhard (D) 31

NM-03 (Albuquerque Journal): Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) 58, Jefferson Byrd (R) 34

TN-04 (Myers Research for the Stewart campaign): Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R) 49, Eric Stewart (D) 44

TX-14 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Lampson campaign): Randy Weber (R) 46, Rep. Nick Lampson (D) 43

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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