Saturday, October 20, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: (More) Contradictory data muddies White House polling picture

As we head into the weekend, we were treated to another day filled with data points from which all sides can draw comfort, as well as consternation. In a sign that the cycle is drawing to a close, there is no "Friday light" load of polls this week, as 36 more polls enter into the database. A fair number of them, despite being part of the Friday news dump, are bound to draw serious attention.

And, no, I am not talking about the first (and, undoubtedly, only) poll out of the District of Columbia.

Conservatives (and I say this with a smirk) will be embracing PPP today, as their new post-debate polls actually gave Mitt Romney infinitesimal leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those on the left, meanwhile, can look to marginally better national numbers, as well as two polls (albeit sponsored by Democratic groups) giving the president a lead in both North Carolina and Nevada.

The big picture is a muddy one, at best. The early indicators are that the second debate has not matched the first debate in its ability to reshape the polls. But, as I cautioned yesterday, it is way too early to gauge an impact. Indeed, the immediate aftermath of the 1st debate left us with the initial impression that its impact was muted, as well.

More on that in a little bit. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 51, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gravis--R): Romney 46, Obama 44

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); RV Unavailable at press time

NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 48

NATIONAL (Univ. of Connecticut): Obama 48, Romney 45


CALIFORNIA (PSRA for Reason-Rupe): Obama 53, Romney 38

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (PPP for Washington City Paper): Obama 88, Romney 8

FLORIDA (CNN/ORC): Romney 49, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 43 (RV)

FLORIDA (Fox News): Romney 48, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 47, Obama 45 (RV)

FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 46

IOWA (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48

MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney 54, Obama 43

NEVADA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change--D): Obama 51, Romney 43

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48

NORTH CAROLINA (Grove Insight for Project New America--D): Obama 47, Romney 44

NORTH CAROLINA (TelOpinion for the NC Republican Party): Romney 49, Obama 45

OHIO (Fox News): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 41 (RV)

OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 42

UTAH (Utah State Univ.): Romney 74, Obama 21

VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 47

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 48

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-SEN (PSRA for Reason-Rupe): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 60, Elizabeth Emken (R) 34

HI-SEN (Benenson Strategy Group for the Hirono campaign): Mazie Hirono (D) 56, Linda Lingle (R) 38

MO-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47, Todd Akin (R) 35, Jonathan Dine (L) 8

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 51, Todd Akin (R) 43

OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44

PA-SEN (Garin-Hart-Yang for the Casey campaign): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 39

PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research for the PA Republican Party): Tom Smith (R) 48, Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46

UT-SEN (Utah State Univ.): Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 67, Scott Howell (D) 24


NH-GOV (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 45, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43

NC-GOV (TelOpinion for the NC Republican Party): Pat McCrory (R) 51, Walter Dalton (D) 37

UT-GOV (Utah State Univ.): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 76, Peter Cooke (D) 17


IL-08 (Anzalone-Liszt for the League of Conservation Voters): Tammy Duckworth (D) 54, Rep. Joe Walsh (R) 39

NY-18 (Siena): Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) 49, Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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