Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Mixed bag ahead of the all-important debate part deux

Thanks to a gigantic polling dump from the YouGov organization (but not traditional polling...more on that after the jump), we reach a new single-day polling record with (gulp!) 85 separate surveys.

Half of them, however, came from that YouGov massive release of data from two dozen states. However, and this is worth noting, these are not traditional polls. They are "callbacks" of people who were surveyed online last month. As such, they are useful to look at how those folks have shifted their preferences since September, but the caveat that these are not unique samples should be remembered.

We'll delve into those numbers, and the national numbers, in a bit. For now, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 47 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 41 (RV)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Romney 50, Obama 46

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47


ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 43

CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 39

COLORADO (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 47

COLORADO (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 45

CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 39

FLORIDA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44

ILLINOIS (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 38

INDIANA (Rasmussen): Romney 54, Obama 41

INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 41

IOWA (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 46

IOWA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

MARYLAND (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 37

MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama 57, Romney 42

MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 36

MICHIGAN (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 42

MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 44

MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 42

NEVADA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 45

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk): Obama 47, Romney 47

NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 43

NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 41

NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 35

NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 48

OHIO (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 44

TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 43

TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 55, Obama 41

VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 46, Romney 45

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40

WASHINGTON (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 36

WISCONSIN (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 47

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 38

CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 35

CT-SEN (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 42, Linda McMahon (R) 40

FL-SEN (Univ. of North Florida): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 40

FL-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42

IN-SEN (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 45, Joe Donnelly (D) 41

MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 46, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 39

MD-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 54, Dan Bongino (R) 30

MI-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 39

MN-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 58, Kurt Bills (R) 30

MN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 32

MO-SEN (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 52, Todd Akin (R) 38

MO-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47, Todd Akin (R) 42

MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 48

NV-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 36

NJ-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 55, Joe Kyrillos (R) 37

NJ-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32

NY-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 55, Wendy Long (R) 25

OH-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 43

PA-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 45

PA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 41

TN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 48, Mark Clayton (D) 27

TX-SEN (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 51, Paul Sadler (D) 36

VA-SEN (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 42, George Allen (R) 42

WA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 55, Michael Baumgartner (R) 36

WI-SEN (YouGov): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 43


IN-GOV (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 49, John Gregg (D) 38

MO-GOV (YouGov): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 54, Dave Spence (R) 36

NH-GOV (Suffolk): Maggie Hassan (D) 41, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 38, John Babiarz (L) 4

NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 52, Walter Dalton (D) 38

NC-GOV (YouGov): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 34

WA-GOV (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 45

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 44

WA-GOV (YouGov): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 39


CA-21 (Moore Information for the Valadao campaign): David Valadao (R) 53, John Hernandez (D) 33

CA-30 (Feldman Group for the Sherman campaign): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 51, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 26

CA-30 (Kimball Political Consulting--R): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 32, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 26

CA-36 (Finkelstein and Associates for the Bono Mack campaign): Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 55, Raul Ruiz (D) 38

CA-36 (PPP for Democracy for America): Raul Ruiz (D) 47, Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 46

FL-26 (Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC): Joe Garcia (D) 46, Rep. David Rivera (R) 35, Others 3

IL-10 (DCCC IVR--D): Brad Schneider (D) 44, Rep. Bob Dold (R) 43

IL-13 (DCCC IVR--D): David Gill (D) 43, Rodney Davis (R) 37

IL-17 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Schilling campaign): Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) 51, Cheri Bustos (D) 44

ME-02 (Eaton River Strategies for the Raye campaign): Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 47, Kevin Raye (R) 40

ME-02 (Normington Petts and Associates for the Michaud campaign): Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 58, Kevin Raye (R) 33

MN-06 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Graves campaign): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 47, Jim Graves (D) 45

RI-02 (Aqua Opinion and Research for the Collins campaign): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 48, Michael Riley (R) 22, Abel Collins (I) 17

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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