For the better part of a week, I have cautioned that it was too early to read into the early convention and post-convention polling emanating from the Republican National Convention. Too few data points, a window (in the case of Gallup's daily tracking poll) that still included too many pre-convention respondents, et cetera. Well, it's the Tuesday after the convention. We can now draw some firm conclusions about the political impact of the RNC on the state of electoral play. And the most evident conclusion is that this was a convention, largely, without a bounce or any discernible momentum for the challenger.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama tied with Romney (48-48--LV); Obama d. Romney (52-45--RV)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45--LV); Obama tied with Romney (43-43--RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
FLORIDA (Gravis Marketing--R): Romney d. Obama (48-47)
MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-44)
FL-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 42A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Connie Mack IV (R) 38
MI-SEN (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 41
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