Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: What to parse when you parse polls

Judging from both the volume and the tenor of the comments in the Tuesday edition of the Wrap, the polls that got the most attention were the pair of polls by Michigan-based McCollum Foster White, in conjunction with Baydoun Consulting. With new polls giving Mitt Romney a marginal lead in Michigan, and a gigantic one in Florida, the old maxim seemed most apt: if it looks too bad (or too good) to be true, it usually is.

Our community immediately leapt on some demographic numbers within those polls that absolutely deserve scrutiny, and can fairly call into question the veracity of the poll.

Now, that is often the last province of the losers in the poll analysis game. When a poll is released, those on the short end of the numerical stick often dive under the hood, looking for any seemingly aberrant stat in the sample, in hopes of hanging an "outlier" tag on the entire poll.

Well, there are times where that is semi-foolish wishful thinking, and there are times where it might be more legit. That's what we'll explore after we check out the (rather varied) data buffet for this Wednesday.

And, with that, on with the numbers...

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (AP/GfK): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-44)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)

FLORIDA (Gravis Marketing): Romney d. Obama (48-45)

GEORGIA (20/20 Insight for A Better Georgia'D): Romney d. Obama (49-46)

MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama d. Romney (55-39)

MONTANA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney Romney d. Obama (55-38)

NEVADA (SurveyUSA for Las Vegas Review-Journal): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (52-38)

VERMONT (Castleton State College): Obama d. Romney (62-25)

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

AZ-02 (OnMessage for the McSally campaign): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 50, Martha McSally (R) 45

CT-SEN (Rasmussen): Linda McMahon (R) 49, Chris Murphy (D) 46

FL-SEN (Gravis Marketing): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 46, Connie Mack IV (R) 39

VT-GOV (Castleton State College): Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) 60, Randy Brock (R) 26

WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson (R) 50, Tammy Baldwin (D) 41

WI-SEN (PPP): Tommy Thompson (R) 49, Tammy Baldwin (D) 44

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...