Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Todd Akin goes supernova'and the world awaits his next move

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' MO-Sen: Okay, so this is old news to you by now:

"First of all, from what I understand from doctors [pregnancy from rape] is really rare," [Republican Rep. Todd] Akin told KTVI-TV in an interview posted Sunday. "If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."

Akin said that even in the worst-case scenario'when the supposed natural protections against unwanted pregnancy fail'abortion should still not be a legal option for the rape victim.

"Let's assume that maybe that didn't work, or something," Akin said. "I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist and not attacking the child."

With these remarks, Rep. Todd Akin went supernova and made himself the third most-famous Republican running for office this year, much to the chagrin of his own party. All day Monday, high-powered Republicans furiously tried to pry Akin loose from the race, with endless anonymous remarks flying about the Internet claiming the congressman was on the verge of dropping out. Thing is, if anyone had any leverage over Akin, he'd already be gone, and there'd be no need to publicly issue the kind of threats that have been made. (Perhaps the most over-the-top came from Crossroads GPS, which said it was cancelling an ad run this week on Akin's behalf, explaining that the "act speaks for itself"'but it was later reported that Crossroads left a much larger fall buy intact.)

I don't claim any ability to predict the future, but the fact is, Akin's 65 years old, he had to give up his seat in the House to run for Senate, and won a pretty serious primary upset. This is the capstone of his career, and there really isn't any inducement anyone can offer him to step aside'hence the threats. He may still prefer to quit, in the end, but I seriously doubt that national Republicans would write off this race entirely if he refuses to step aside. So the bluff is his to call, and indeed, he's made multiple statements that he intends to forge ahead, and has even started running online ads saying he "staying in." Of course, you can still find tea leaves that augur in the other direction, like the fact that he abruptly cancelled a Monday night interview with CNN's Piers Morgan at the last moment.

So what happens next? A lot of people, including Akin himself, seem to think that Tuesday at the close of business is the deadline for him bail. But based on my read of section 115.359 of Missouri election law, even if Akin misses today's cutoff, he can still get off the ballot by "the sixth Tuesday before the election" (Sept. 25) as long as he gets a court order (which is to be "freely given" unless election officials can show "good cause" to deny it), and he agrees to pay any ballot reprinting costs. In other words, he still has plenty of time to get out, and if he does, a party committee would pick a replacement.

But Akin may be acting canny here: If he convinces the establishment that Tuesday is the drop-dead date, then he only has to endure one more day of intense pressure. Still, the NRSC's lawyers aren't going to be fooled, and we may be treated to quite a bit more pleading, cajoling, and threatening yet. But if Akin does call their bluff, then the GOP will eventually have to lay off and make their peace with the man. After all, he's theirs'legitimately.

P.S. In the "funny timing" department, the DSCC just threw on another $402K for ads attacking Akin, in an IE report filed on Monday but referencing an expenditure made on Friday. I wonder if they'll delay their latest assault for a little bit, though, to give Akin time to shore up his standing.